A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
